The recently released 11th grade ACT scores for Arkansas’ current high school seniors show that only 1 in 5 members of the class of 2023 met the test’s College-ready Benchmark in math, 1 in 4 met in science and fewer than 1 in 3 seniors met the mark in reading. According to ACT, students who reach the Readiness Benchmarks have a 50% likelihood of getting a grade of “B” or better in college courses associated with the tested area. You can find the readiness rates for your school here.
As shown in Figure 1 below, ACT readiness percentages are a decline from 2016, when the state started providing all 11th graders the opportunity to take the ACT free of charge during the school day. We think this is a good thing because it gives every student the opportunity to demonstrate their knowledge and readiness for college, and it gives education stakeholders a valid and reliable piece of data to use over time.
The ACT is a test that measures college-readiness and has traditionally been used in college admissions, although that is changing as more colleges are not requiring students to submit test scores with their application. For example, University of Arkansas applicants with a 3.20 high school GPA or higher will be reviewed for admission to the university without a qualifying test score. They must, however, submit test scores for prior to enrollment for placement and to state reporting requirements.
Note that ACT measures achievement, which as we often point out, is strongly negatively correlated with poverty. This means that comparisons of ACT scores across districts or schools should only be done after taking into account the percentage of students eligible for the federal free- and reduced-lunch program, which is based on low household income.
Unlike other assessments, the ACT was administered prior to school closures in March of 2020, and reflected somewhat higher scores than in 2019 in the percentage of juniors meeting Readiness Benchmarks in English, mathematics, and reading. Consistent with other state assessments, the 2021 scores reflect post-COVID declines across all content areas. While 2022 scores show slight improvements, scores remain well below pre-pandemic levels.
Since the 2015-16 school year, students in grades 3-10 have taken the ACT Aspire as the annual state assessment. One of the perceived benefits of the ACT Aspire was that it would provide educators and stakeholders with indicators of if students were on-track for college and career readiness after high school graduation. “Students at or above the [ACT Aspire] benchmark [in grades 3-8] are on target for college readiness when they take the ACT test in grade 11” (page 3). We thought it would be interesting to go back in time and see if we could spot any warning signs that the current seniors would be so poorly prepared.
We found that while the percentage of current seniors meeting readiness rates declined after COVID-related school closures in the spring of 2020, gains in readiness rates were inconsistent prior to the pandemic.
| 2015-16 5th grade |
2016-17 6th grade |
2017-18 7th grade |
2018-19 8th grade |
2019-20 9th grade |
2020-21 10th grade |
2021-22 11th grade |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| English | 74 | 74 | 79 | 74 | N/A | 55 | 46 |
| Mathematics | 48 | 62 | 47 | 48 | N/A | 22 | 19 |
| Reading | 34 | 47 | 40 | 53 | N/A | 31 | 31 |
| Science | 39 | 62 | 43 | 43 | N/A | 28 | 24 |
Back when the current seniors were in 5th grade, almost 3/4 were on-track to meet readiness benchmarks in English. This percentage stayed fairly consistent through 8th grade, and then dropped to 55% in 10th grade, the spring following school closures due to COVID. By the spring of their junior year, only 46% met college-ready benchmarks, a decline of 28 percentage points from 5th grade rates.
As 5th graders, just fewer than half of the current seniors were on-track to meet readiness benchmarks. Apart from a large increase in 6th grade, this percentage was consistent through 8th grade, and then dropped to 22% in 10th grade. By the spring of their junior year, only 19% met college-ready benchmarks, a decline of 29 percentage points from 5th grade rates.
The reading readiness rates for current seniors increased from 34% as 5th graders to 53% as 8th graders. Post-COVID, the rate remained at 31% of current seniors meeting readiness benchmarks, a decline of 3 percentage points since 5th grade.
In science, the readiness rates for current seniors increased from 39% as 5th graders to 43% as 8th graders. Post-COVID, the rate of current seniors meeting science readiness benchmarks at 10th grade was 28%, which declined to 24% the following year. This change reflects a decline of 15 percentage points since 5th grade.
We can’t go back in time, but we CAN learn from the past and apply those lessons to students currently in our public schools. When we examine readiness rates for current 6th graders, we find that their 5th grade English readiness rates are 8 percentage points lower than the 5th grade rates of current seniors. Math readiness rates are 7 percentage points lower, and science readiness rates are 2 percentage points below those evidenced by current seniors when they were in 5th grade. Reading readiness rates are consistent between the two groups, at 34% of 5th graders meeting reading readiness.
| 2020-21 4th grade |
2021-22 5th grade |
|
|---|---|---|
| English | 63 | 66 |
| Mathematics | 43 | 41 |
| Reading | 40 | 34 |
| Science | 37 | 37 |
What this comparison tells us is that current 6th graders are behind where current seniors were, and that readiness rates in math and reading have DECLINED in the last year. We need to see drastic improvements in our education system if we want more than 1 in 5 students of the class of 2029 to be ready for college-level math, more than 1 in 4 to be ready for college-level science, or more than 1 in 3 to be reading for college-level reading.
Given prior patterns, about half of the current seniors will attend college. Of those, just over half will go to 4-year colleges, and half will graduate with a “4-year degree” in 6 years. Out of 100 seniors, that works out to about 13 graduates of the class of 2023 with a Bachelor’s degree by 2029. Interestingly, this is just the rate of seniors that were found to be College-Ready in all four areas of the ACT.
As educators and stakeholders, we need to start getting the job of educating students done and not let another group of graduates fins themselves so poorly prepared for life after high school.